Impact probabilities

Explore the probability of soil-moisture drought impacts (DSM) and hydrological drought impacts (DH) across the Alpine Space!

DSM impacts cover mostly impacts on agriculture and forestry, and their occurrence probability is calculated with the Soil moisture anomalies (SMA-1). DH impacts cover mostly impacts on water supply, water quality, and freshwater ecosystems, and their occurrence probability is calculated with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3). Select different index-scenarios to visualize the impact probability.

The darker the red, the more likely impacts occur.
Regions without any impacts are coloured in white.

These risk maps have been developed with impact data from the EDIIALPS V1.0. Impacts in each NUTS region were assigned to two groups: soil-moisture drought impacts (DSM) and hydrological drought impacts (DH). The DSM impacts stem mostly from the impact categories Forestry, and Agriculture and livestock farming (see Deliverable DT3.1.1). The so-called hydrological drought impacts stem mostly from the impact categories Public water supply, Freshwater ecosystems and Water quality. For each NUTS3 region, we fit a generalized linear model with a logit link to regress the likelihood of a drought impact against SPEI-3 and SMA-1. With the fitted model we then predicted impact occurrences for different SPEI-3 and SMA-1 values in order to estimate the occurrence probability for each NUTS 3 region. NUTS 3 regions without sufficient DSM or DH impact data to estimate a model are shown as regions with missing ata. The method (model and scenario mapping) follows the method by Blauhut et al. (2015).

For further details on the application for ADO, please read: Deliverable DT3.2.1. Blauhut V., Gudmundsson L., Stahl K. (2015) Towards pan-European drought risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts, Environmental Research Letters 10, 014008 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008